Budget unlikely to be growth game changer

15 Dec 2025

The Autumn Budget is unlikely to kickstart the UK economy, with the nation's growth outlook remaining subdued, according to research from the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC).

The UK economy is expected to grow by 1.4% in 2025, revised slightly up from the previous forecast of 1.3%, driven by strong public spending, according to the BCC.

However, GDP is expected to slow to 1.2% in 2026 before rising to 1.5% in 2027 as a result of productivity challenges and cautious fiscal tightening, the business group added.

The BCC says that business investment is forecast to suffer significantly next year – falling from expected growth of 3% in 2025 to just 0.9% in 2026. It is then expected to rise again to 1.5% in 2027.

The projected weak levels of business investment are due to ongoing cost pressures on firms and the lack of direct growth measures in the Budget.

David Bharier, Head of Research at the BCC, said: 'Our forecast suggests the Autumn Budget is unlikely to be a growth game changer for the UK economy.

'Taken together the forecast paints a picture of an economy remaining stuck in low gear. Businesses are showing remarkable resilience and innovation, but many are weighed down by political uncertainty and the cumulative cost pressures.

'Delivery on growth is now key – the government has published industrial, trade and infrastructure strategies, and these must translate into action.'